Empirical Studies of Armed Conflicts and Historical Institutions

Peer-Reviewed Articles

Published, forthcoming, and accepted manuscripts

  1. Forthcoming. "Why Does Ethnic Partition Foster Violence? Unpacking the Deep Historical Roots of Civil Conflicts." Journal of Peace Research.
  2. 2020. "Battle Diffusion Matters: Examining the Impact of Microdynamics of Fighting on Conflict Termination." Journal of Conflict Resolution 64(5): 871-902 (Coauthored with Kaisa Hinkkainen Elliott)
  3. 2016. 「内戦における暴力行使の帰結:空間計量経済/統計モデルによるアプローチ」 『レヴァイアサン』第59号: 131-169頁 (in Japanese)
  4. 2015. "From KISS to TASS Modeling: A Preliminary Analysis of the Segregation Model Incorporated with Spatial Data on Chicago." Japanese Journal of Political Science 16(4): 553-573 (co-authored with Susumu Yamakage)
  5. 2015.「2つの集計化と非集計化:内戦研究の微視的転回,その含意と課題」『国際関係論研究』第31号: 73-99頁 (in Japanese)
  6. 2013.「国際関係論におけるシミュレーション技法の展開:理論研究と実証研究の架橋」『国際関係論研究』第30号: 43-63頁 (in Japanese)

Recent Works

Submitted manuscripts and working papers

  1. "On the Persistent Effects of the Slave Trade on Postcolonial Politics in Africa." Revise and Resubmit, American Journal of Political Science. Available at SSRN: and here
  2. "Historical Image Analysis with Machine Learning: Evaluating the Damages of WWII Tokyo Air Raids" (with Masataka Harada)
  3. "Destruction from Above: Long-Term Impacts of WWII Tokyo Air Raids" (with Masataka Harada and Daniel M. Smith) Available at SSRN:
  4. "Escalation with Relocation: Unpacking the Local Geography of Aid and Battle Intensity in Civil Conflicts." Under Review. Available at SSRN:
  5. ``Inherited Destruction: Legacies of the Slave Trade on Deforestation in Africa.'' (with Shinji Kaneko and Chui Ying Lee)
  6. "How Peacekeeping Spreads Peace: Spatial Effects of Peacekeeping on Violence" (with Jun Koga Sudduth)
  7. "Modeling the Determinants of Insurgent Violence in Afghanistan." Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Peace Research (Dissertation Chapter)
  8. "How Do You Strike Me? Decomposing the Determinants of Selective and Indiscriminate Violence in Civil Conflicts." (Dissertation Chapter)

Selected Ongoing Projects

Manuscripts to be posted

  1. "How Agriculture Shapes Population Growth: Evidence from Manchuria in the Early Twentieth Century"
  2. "Railway Construction and Urbanization: Evidence from the Expansion of the South Manchuria Railways."
  3. "Ethnic Suffocation, Political Coalitions, and Domestic Conflicts."
  4. "Coalition Building and Bargaining Failure in Domestic Arena: Cultural Cleavages Matter in Some Civil Conflicts but Not in Others."
  5. "Climate Shocks, Rebel Constituencies, and Conflict Dynamics: Explaining Why Extreme Climates Escalate Some Civil Conflicts but Not Others."

Book Chapters

  1. 2021 (in Japanese). 「国際制度としての国境の計量分析:国境画定がもたらす民族紛争への影響」鈴木基史・飯田敬輔編著『国際関係研究の方法』東京大学出版会,第6章.
  2. 2021. "On the Electoral Consequences of Increasing Chinese Imports: Insights from the Japanese Lower House General Elections, 2009-2017." In Jun Ma and Masashi Yamamoto (eds.), Growth Mechanism and Sustainability: An Economic Analysis of the Steel Industry in East Asia. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, Chapter 11.
  3. 2018. 「国際貿易の実証分析:データセットと推定法」馬駿ほか編著『東アジアの森林・木材資源の持続的利用:経済学のアプローチ』農林統計協会,第11章 (in Japanese). Link to
  4. 2014. 「拡大と疲弊の相互作用が生む戦争規模の法則性」山影進編著『アナーキーな社会の混沌と秩序』書籍工房早山,第7章 (in Japanese). Link to

Non-Peer-Reviewed Articles

Some more earlier works

  1. 2018. 「実証的シミュレーションの『作法』:現実との接合と説明力の検証」Aoyama Journal of International Studies No.5: 247-267 (共著・山影進, in Japanese)
  2. 2016. 「社会科学における実証的シミュレーション:シェリングの分居モデルの拡張と空間データとの接合例」『青山国際政経論集』第96号: 101-124 (共著・山影進, in Japanese)
  3. 2015. "The Insurgent Disease? Simulating the Geography of Insurgent Violence." Working Paper Series: Study on Artificial Societies, No.48
  4. 2014. 「『拡大と疲弊の相互作用が生む戦争規模の法則性』補遺」ワーキングペーパーシリーズ人工社会研究 No.45 (in Japanese)

External Grant

As the Principal Investigator (PI)

  1. 2020-2024. Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (Type B, 基盤B), the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Grant Number: 20H01466, 16,250,000 JPY
  2. 2018-2021. Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (Type C, 基盤C特設分野研究), the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Grant Number: 18KT0054, 4,290,000 JPY
  3. 2017-2020. Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (Type B, 若手B), the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Grant Number: 17K13686, 4,160,000 JPY
  4. 2016-2018. Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-Up, the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Grant Number: 16H06819, 2,990,000 JPY
  5. 2015-2016. The Konosuke Matsushita Memorial Foundation, 500,000 JPY